Validation
The evidence,
in full.
Every number Souppe publishes is a backtested result computed on historical data, with the methodology public and the as-of period stated. This page holds all of it.
Results
What happens when
you actually look?
We built 6,152 portfolios by applying Souppe's suggestions and measured how they behaved across 26 years of real markets, through every major downturn since 1999.
You lose less when it matters most
The crash that wipes out years of gains is every investor's worst fear. Souppe-guided portfolios lost 21% to 51% less than the S&P 500 during every sustained bear market since 1999.
The dot-com crash wiped out 49% of the S&P 500. Souppe portfolios lost 24% on average. In 2008, the market fell 57% while Souppe portfolios fell 45%. The same pattern held through 2015-16 and 2018. When your holdings protect each other under stress, you keep more of what you have built.
Every suggestion makes it stronger
Each suggestion targets a specific weakness and measurably improves your portfolio's risk profile. The first one helps. The fifth transforms it.
After one suggestion, your portfolio's worst-case loss improves by 4 points. After three, by over 9. After five, by 12. Your portfolio swings less, drops less and recovers from less depth. The improvement stacks with every step.
You understand every suggestion
Souppe shows you exactly what drives your portfolio and why each suggestion makes it stronger. Every suggestion traces to quantifiable data.
You see where you are concentrated, where you are exposed to downside, how liquid your holdings are and how they behave during stress. The more stocks you hold, the deeper Souppe understands your portfolio. When it suggests an addition, you see exactly which gap it closes and why.
The more fragile you are today, the more Souppe helps
Souppe analyses your specific portfolio and targets its exact weak points. The improvement you see depends on where you start.
Single-stock holders see up to 23 percentage points less drawdown. Trend-heavy and concentrated portfolios also improve significantly. The more structural risk in your portfolio, the more Souppe can reduce it.
Validation Study
Real portfolios.
Real results.
We ran Souppe on the actual holdings of 500 institutional fund managers from SEC 13F filings, totalling $1.3 trillion in AUM. Single-fund managers (up to 1 private fund); sole-managed portfolios; AUM at least $0.5B; Souppe suitability at least 70, 2025Q4 filings.
Souppe scores every portfolio across multiple dimensions of risk and names the weak spot. We applied Souppe's top suggestion to each manager's holdings and measured what changed. 11 of 13 risk measures improved with statistical significance (Holm-Bonferroni-corrected p < 0.05). Every portfolio is different. Every answer is different.
Case Studies
Real managers.
Measurably stronger portfolios.
Institutional portfolios pulled from SEC 13F filings. Each card names the manager's weakest dimension and the specific security Souppe suggested. Click any card to read the full analysis.
Methodology